[cornholio]

I don't think so. The textbook definition, at least what I understand from the YC literature, is that they have a deep insight and technical ability to execute it, so by moving fast they create the moat. They aren't faking it, the potential of a company and market share is there in the ingredients but they lack the runway to quickly take off.

For example, Tesla vs Nikola. One set of founders had a powerful vision and technical ability to see it through (yes, even Elon, say what you want about him but he has deep technical insights, moreso for his cofounders). The other set had a good funding catchphrase "Electric cars, but with trucks!" and tried to fake their way forward using copious amounts of VC money. Many of these companies sound like "AI, but with ... !"

[palata]

> They aren't faking it, the potential of a company and market share is there in the ingredients but they lack the runway to quickly take off.

How do you explain that the vast majority of startups fail, then?

IMO the best a VC can do is check that the startup they invest in is not an obvious scam. But then it's impossible to predict which technologies will work and which will not. So they just diversify, counting on the fact that a few of those startups will bring significant money at some point.

Sure, they like to share their "vision" and "predictions", just like traders probably like to share their opinion on the stocks they buy. But at the end of the day, they don't know, they just diversify their investment.