[bilqis]

Typical grifter take, using analogies, which are always a bad framework to analyse and predict events and trends based on the history. A few years ago others grifters were saying the same about blockchain and NFTs, a year ago same thing about metaverse/decentraland.

[SideburnsOfDoom]

Exactly. What was the corresponding percentage of Blockchain and/or Cryptocurrency start-ups say, 2 years ago?

[borissk]

Do tell - how do you analyse and predict events and trends NOT based on the history.

[SideburnsOfDoom]

I'm puzzled by this take: surely the recent history - the cryptocurrency bubble - the hot air and lack of substance, the extractive scams, is useful lens for current events? But it's not everything, we can't be entirely "based on it" deterministically - as we do indeed "suck at predicting".

[mym1990]

That’s easy, if you have a framework of knowledge around things like physics or chemistry or biology(add any domain here), one could predict outcomes of hypothetical use cases with considerable accuracy. Unless you lump all domain knowledge into “history” because it has to have happened in the past…

[Idiot_in_Vain]

Do you think chemistry or biology knowedge was given to humans by the gods or the ancient aliens and not based on a history of practical knowedge, experiments and research?

[mym1990]

Thats why I added the last sentence. But for the purpose of debate, it is reasonable to distinguish domains like physics from history. It is one thing to study how something was discovered, and another to understand the parameters around an event so that you can predict what might happen.

[bilqis]

My point was, that saying “historical event X is somehow similar to ongoing event Y, thus we can reason and predict outcomes of Y based on X” is a false methodology, appealing, but false.

[palata]

A first good step IMO is to accept that we suck at predicting.

[borissk]

We are great at predicting. The number one task of the huge human neocortex is predicting the future.

If you look at the past HN comments there were users who predicted the raise of OpenAI, the war in Ukraine and so on.

[mym1990]

Predicting isn’t some black and white skill. The neocortex doing calculations in the background to predict how heavy a cup of coffee might be or how hot the stove is…is very different from consciously predicting geopolitical events which are based on countless other variables. In a world of 8 billion people of course you will see some get things right, and then conveniently point it out…but most people’s predictions are wrong, and no one pays attention to those results.

[palata]

Did you forget a "/s", or do you actually believe that?

[SideburnsOfDoom]

No, but they are playing word games. yes, the human brain is a great engine designed for predicting future events and working with that e.g. how to catch a ball that is coming towards you and will arrive shortly in the future, how to throw an object and hit a target, how to pick up a heavy object and move it to where you need it, etc.

But this is not at all the same kind of "predicting future events" as accurately saying where e.g. the CryptoCurrency or VR industry will be in a decade or so.

[nikanj]

Remember when people paid good money for Second Life real estate?