[CountSessine]

The Chinese government does, at present, strongly favor the status quo.

There is only one external event - an event that takes place outside of China - that can seriously disrupt the CCP's rule over China and that is Taiwan successfully declaring independence and international recognition.

It would be a humiliating loss of face for the CCP and would probably be followed by a desperate reshuffling within the party and perhaps even a civil war. The CCP is strong and rigid, but like ceramic, not like steel. Their only mandate rests on China's continued economic and diplomatic success. Taiwanese independence would be the nucleating particle for an explosion of domestic unrest and chaos.

[JumpCrisscross]

> Taiwanese independence would be the nucleating particle for an explosion of domestic unrest and chaos

Honest question: does it have to be? Couldn't they sneer it off and keep doing what they're doing: claim it's a rebellious province they're too busy to deal with?

[CountSessine]

Every dictatorship is seething with discontent among the elites. Dictators are rarely overthrown by revolutionaries - it's more common that they're deposed by their own generals. A public failure like Taiwanese independence isn't a problem for everyone in the Chinese government - for some, it could be an opportunity. If you're at the very top, you don't want that.