[zsz]

The Pacific, for one, meaning control of shipping lanes—and with these, economic/political leverage over Japan (which, as internal PLA documents for senior staff have already revealed, they intend to put to full use). Right now, China is boxed in from all sides by mostly U.S. allied countries, so breaking the "First Island Chain" encirclement is in reality a much bigger deal than the semiconductor industry, especially in the long term.

[CamperBob2]

Who do they plan to ship to using their newly-conquered shipping lanes, exactly?

They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.

[lenkite]

> They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.

Umm...except for US+EU, no one is saying No to Russian oil and other exports. Of-course, you are free to consider that the "rest of the civilized world" in your mind.

[creato]

Russia is getting $52/barrel for oil. Other producers are getting $80-85/barrel.

[pclmulqdq]

Comparing oil prices like this doesn't exactly work - oil is less of a commodity than we like to think. $80-85 per barrel is the price for WTI or Brent, which is a grade of crude oil called "light sweet crude." As oil goes, this is the highest purity grade. Middle Eastern oil, in general, is not anywhere near that pure, and can go for as little as $20-30/barrel. I assume Russian oil is also not quite as light and sweet as $80/barrel oil would be.

The whole point is that $52/barrel isn't (only) geopolitics, it's also about oil purity.

[perpetualpatzer]

This chart looks like it's mostly geopolitics. The Brent-Ural spread opened pretty significantly in Jan.

[0]https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/crude-oil-prices

[jandrese]

Other authoritarian regimes. Autocrats gotta stick together. Besides, international sanctions don't last forever. Give it a decade and maybe everyone forgets. China is a gigantic market and that's a lot of political pressure. It's not a tiny island nation like Cuba.

[aaronblohowiak]

> China is a gigantic market and that's a lot of political pressure.

how do their imports compare to their exports?

[nonethewiser]

Why wouldnt they, if they could, send the navy to secure Japanese islands they insist are theirs?

[lmm]

Isn't that wholly circular? Annex the islands to allow the navy free passage to annex the islands to...