[eurekin]

Well, if it had choosen our planet as a direct destination for (providing it has means to travel at light speed) collision, we'd only have 1560 years to escape.

There are a couple of comically improbable conditions that would happen only in fantasy to start threating us

[proto-n]

On the other hand, if it had chosen our planet as its destination 1559 years ago, then we would have no way of being aware of this fact until next year

[codethief]

But then we wouldn't be seeing it at a distance of 1560 ly right now.

[CaptainNegative]

In principle it could be approaching us at near the speed of light (for example, if it was hit by something big going near the speed of light from the other direction a few days after the presently observed light was emitted) and we would never know it until it's just about too late.

The same, of course, could be said for any other celestial body, currently observed or otherwise.

[AnimalMuppet]

It's 10 solar masses. If it were hit by something big (100 solar masses, say) traveling at 0.9 c, then the result would be headed our way at a bit less than 0.9 c. At 1560 light years away, that would take 1733 years, so it wouldn't get here for another 173 years.

But why bother with this black hole? If you want to go that route, why not just imagine that there could be a 100-solar-mass something headed directly at us at 0.9 c, and it will show up tomorrow?

[codethief]

> a few days after the presently observed light was emitted) and we would never know it until it's just about too late.

Right, good point! I shouldn't have skipped my morning coffee.

> if it was hit by something big

For the record, I assume you mean not a literal "hit" but some sort of binary interaction with another very massive object that ends up transferring (a lot of) momentum to the black hole.

[v4dok]

For anyone who didn't immediatly get why that is (me for example). I asked GPT4 to explain. Here is the explanation.

The reason we wouldn't be able to know until it's too late is due to the nature of light and the speed at which information can travel.

When we observe celestial objects like stars or black holes, we do so by detecting the light they emit or the effects they have on nearby objects. The speed of light is approximately 299,792 kilometers per second (km/s) in a vacuum. This speed is the fastest anything can travel, including information.

In the hypothetical scenario presented in the comments, if a black hole or any celestial body was approaching Earth at near the speed of light, the light (or information) about its approach would be traveling towards us at almost the same speed as the object itself. This means that by the time we receive and process the information about its approach, the object would already be dangerously close to us.

In simpler terms, imagine you and a friend are racing towards a finish line, and your friend is just slightly slower than you. If you start the race at the same time, you'll reach the finish line almost simultaneously. In this analogy, you represent the light (information) and your friend represents the celestial object. Since the information about the approaching object is only slightly ahead of the object itself, we wouldn't have much time to react or prepare once we become aware of the threat.

In the case of the black hole discussed in the comments, if it were moving towards us at near the speed of light, we wouldn't know it until it was almost upon us, making it too late to effectively respond or take any meaningful action to protect ourselves.

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Human comment: Near light speeds are a fascinating topic, that even though I claim basic understanding it always defies intuition.