[lz400]

>one in 1000 chances of perforating a bowel and dying here and now

that sounded impossible and googling a bit I think it's off by a couple of orders of magnitude: closer to 1 in 10000 chances of perforation, which has a single digit % of death

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2811793/

[eloff]

Thank you, my source was probably wrong, or my memory.

However, I wouldn’t be quick to say it invalidates the conclusion, without more careful analysis.