[jawon]

Doesn't reasoning like this fall under the ecological fallacy? You can't use statistics to predict the outcome for the individual.

If I get a colonoscopy tomorrow there is not a 1/1000 chance I'll die of a perforated bowel. Except perhaps by pure coincidence. My odds will be different. Maybe 1/10. Maybe 1/10,000.

A government can use statistics like these to direct spending, but as an individual you need to take your own personal history into account, and your trust in your medical professionals, and roll the dice.

[eloff]

Your should assume your odds are 1 in 1000, without reason to believe otherwise. Your actual odds are obviously going to be different, but that is unknown to you and shouldn’t affect your reasoning about the risks.