[tim333]

I think the rocket will succeed but I find Musk's projections of costs as low as $10 a ton to orbit a bit unlikely.

[starbase]

No one at SpaceX has projected $10 per ton. Cost of fuel is about $10,000 per ton to LEO, assuming Starship can lob 100 tons at a time.

In a speech to USAF in 2019, Musk said SpaceX's out of pocket cost per launch could be "maybe like $2 million," which would be about $20,000 per ton.

Adjust numbers for inflation accordingly.

[tim333]

Sorry, $10/kg was what I was thinking of https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/09/28909310/elon-musk-calls...

[starbase]

Not to be pedantic, but the $10/kg number came from a graphic published by the journal Science, not from Musk.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1571540353978859526

See also this tweet clarifying that fixed costs are expected to exceed marginal costs:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1328770804222468097

"looks like marginal cost of launch will be less than $1M for more than 100 tons to orbit, so it’s mostly about fixed costs divided by launches per year"

Not trying to nitpick you here. Just hoping to correct some of the confusion that results from playing Telephone with secondary and tertiary sources.