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by erur 1171 days ago
I deeply disagree with putting the existential risk of AGI on a level with pollution, climate change or war.

If you exclude nuclear war, all of these things happen at a human timescale and accelerate fairly slowly and thus can be counteracted.

In many ways GPT already hugely exceeds human speed and bandwith and scaling this up is likely to be self-accelerating if we allow for it. Also there is a huge individual incentive to play with the fire here while the negative externalities could cause effective wipeout - which is why it's commonly equated with commodification of nuclear weapons.

Even if you're deeply pessimistic about the ramp-up, the economic shock of what was already released could still increase political volatility to a point where the likelyhood of wipeout by war becomes significant again.