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by ww520 1174 days ago
Banks usually lend out commercial loans at 50%~60% LTV. They get some cushion.
1 comments

You're correct about LTV, but over 2020-2021 many buildings sold at 'cap-rates' of 2%. (A Cap rate is the yield on the building and effectively an inverse P/E ratio.) However, cap rates are now moving towards 4.5%-5% as interest rates went from 0%->4.5%. And we expect Cap rates to end up slightly higher than interest rates, say 5% or 6%.

So when cap rates double the implied value of the building falls by 50%. Effectively the building goes from being valued at a P/E of 50 (cap rate 2%) to a P/E of 25 (cap rate of 4%).

So the halving of the building's value, as cap rates move in response to interest rates, may mean that a 50% LTV loan is now underwater. Especially if the building is unoccupied or may soon be unoccupied.

If the buildings are priced at cap rate, that means they can be sold at market. The banks can just unload them.
Nobody wants to buy them.