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by dspeyer 1179 days ago
Off the top of my head...

    * A plan exists
    * The plan itself predicts non-obvious results in smaller systems, and those tests have passed (prediction written *before* running test)
    * A bunch of smart people have looked at it and said, "Yes, this looks plausible"
The closest thing to a plan is RLHF, which has failed every toy problem its been thrown at and made everyone in the field say "even if this worked in toy problems, it wouldn't generalize".