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by bluescrn 1178 days ago
> The charging issue and grid use is a massively overblown problem. You only need to charge your car for a few hours every 300 miles.

As usual, everything's just fine for the wealthy, with a new top-end Tesla with its nice big range, and parking/charging space on your own land. The wealthy people will probably be able to demand at-work charging at their 6-figure-salary tech jobs too. Not likely for the more average worker.

Many people will be stuck with old/basic models of cars with smaller/degraded batteries. Many people are unable to charge at home due to living in apartments etc. And right now, many people are entirely priced out of the EV market, as the used EV market is still small.

Also consider that filling up a petrol car takes ~2mins. Charging an EV takes 10-20x that. It's a huge time cost to have to sit around near a public charger, let alone having to queue to charge. And then there's the near-certainty of public chargers price-gouging like crazy once the demand is sufficiently high.

For a large chunk of the population, this transition is going to be painful (If we survive another decade of 'omnicrisis' to even reach 2035 without world war, total collapse, or mass uprising of some kind, that is)

4 comments

Public Transit > Cars for both individuals and society, if the infrastructure is there. Maybe we could devote more energy and resources on developing and improving that infrastructure before 2035 so that cars, electric or otherwise, are less necessary?
Public transit only works in cities. And only in cities where crime is mostly under control.

Many people don't want to live in cities, especially during times of crisis (when they become increasingly dangerous places), and we're living in a seemingly permanent state of crisis.

97% of the population lives in cites. A suburb is still a city, it just isn't very dense. However most suburbs are dense enough to support good public transit as the few cities that have tried it have proved. In Sweden there are farms that get a bus every hour (which isn't good transit, but since the rest of their network is so good people ride it anyway for their rare trips to farms, and farm kids ride it since they don't have a car - the parents of course will drive)
Ah yes, the brilliant rural public transport network must be why EPA tractors are so popular. :)
Yes, there are farms in a Sweden that get busses every hour. There are also much more densely places in cities where busses stop going after 6 pm, or you have to book the bus after 6 pm a day in advance.

In general it's not that good. I've lived in Gothenburg for 30 years, the second largest city of Sweden. It takes me 10-15 min to get to work by car (inner city/business district). It would take me 40-60 min by bus. I know a lot of places that are worse.

The cities and supporting infrastructure are responsible for most of climate change. Abolish cities.
Try Switzerland, where literally every tiny hamlet is accessible by public transport.
There's a big difference between 'accessible by public transport' and 'practical to get to a workplace by public transport'

Most small villages in the UK have some sort of limited bus service, which can be useful for pensioners and other none-working people who need to get to the nearest town/city occasionally, but the services are far too infrequent to be useful if you've got to get somewhere for a specific time on a regular basis.

Consider who climate change is going to impact most? The climate transition, mass migrations, ecosystem collapses etc are going to hit the most vulnerable people the hardest.
Everything always hits the vulnerable people the hardest, as that's basically the meaning of the word. We can't use that to justify policy, since then any and every policy would be justified.
Climate change is likely to hit vulnerable people in the tropics the hardest. Europe did pretty well during the Medieval Warm Period. We should absolutely take steps to reduce CO2 emissions, but a slightly warmer climate is unlikely to be a disaster for poor people in the EU.
> Many people are unable to charge at home due to living in apartments etc.

We will solve the charging problem by running simple L2 240V AC wiring to plugs/poles on the street. It will cost a little bit of money and billing will have to be sorted, but compared to the vast hidden costs of maintaining the roads and urban parking spaces (let alone the costs of not reducing fossil fuel usage) it's basically a rounding error.

It's not even much power: the average European driver travels 32.9km/day. At a (Tesla) usage of 166wH/km that’s 5.461kWh/day, or 273W continuous average power draw assuming most people drive for 4H/day and park the rest of the time. More than a streetlight, but not that much.

> It's not even much power: [...] that’s 5.461kWh/day

I wouldn't call that not much power. My average (over past 10 years) entire house usage is around 15kWh/day. So that's nearly 40% of the usage of the house. But if there's two drivers per household now it's about 75% incremental power usage per household. That's pretty substantial.

> We will solve the charging problem by running simple L2 240V AC wiring to plugs/poles on the street.

The problem will be most likely solved by letting a private company with a local near-monopoly on public charing install chargers in on-street parking and apartment car parks. This private company will then charge several times the market rate for the electricity to use the chargers, several times more than wealthier people are paying to charge their cars.

That's fine. Average Joe will live in a 15-minute city and find that all his needs are covered without a car!

Edit: I am being a little sarcastic, although I really like the idea of a 15-minute city and would happily live in one. I'm also priviledged to live in a country that largely developed before the car, and thus most cities are intrinsically capable of being 15-minute cities.

However, I say this to point out what is clearly true - there is no way for every citizen to own an EV. The "15-minute city" types of vision are how this will be addressed.

A purpose-designed '15 minute city' might be great.

But applying the concept to existing cities, it so blatant that it's just a big stick to bludgeon car owners with, and there's zero intention of providing significant new amenities within a 15min walk of... everyone.

It could just lead to more people fleeing cities and seeking rural freedom, especially those able to find WFH work.