[gmt2027]

In light of the quote, "Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them," I agree that LLMs will undoubtedly transform the landscape of work. By automating tedious tasks, they'll enable engineers to become vastly more productive (10-100x), allowing them to focus on strategic and creative aspects of their projects while developing larger, more complex systems.

While job losses are a concern, I think the more significant impact will be on the way companies operate. As firms exist to economize on the cost of coordinating economic activity, the streamlining and reduction of coordination needs brought about by LLMs will challenge the very foundations of many businesses. In this new landscape, individuals and small teams might outcompete larger organizations.

Freelancers and solo entrepreneurs could find themselves better positioned to compete in the market, driving the rise of smaller, agile businesses that can innovate rapidly and cater to niche markets. This shift will also change the skills needed for success in the field.

Overall, it's an exciting time to be part of this industry. Far from being a time to quit, it's an opportunity to adapt, grow, and harness the power of LLMs to reshape the world of work.

[jwestbury]

> they'll enable engineers to become vastly more productive (10-100x)

Will that come along with a 10-100x pay increase?

Why should I care about being so much more productive, when it won't come with any pay increase (and will likely come with a pay decrease)?

[kbelder]

A general 100x productivity increase, if there's no change in pay, will result in massive price decreases and increases in selection and variety.

[gmt2027]

I'd say stop thinking in terms of employment. When you are 100x more productive, you won't need to be a cog in someone else's machine to build products end to end. There'll be less value for the founder types who assemble capital, teams, and middle management to coordinate them. Think of the professions and trades where people run their own practice: doctors, lawyers, accountants, plumbers and electricians. Once sufficiently skilled, they can strike off on their own and deliver value directly to customers. Sometimes with the help of apprentices and trainees. There are a lot of problems to solve today where the cost of software is too high to be practical.

When our tools get so good that our employers don't need us, we won't need them. In a market where the engineers are competing with the manager class whose core skill is politics and bullshit, who would you bet on long term?