Working a long time as a programmer. I have never seen a computer do anything but multiply jobs. This will do the same. IMO the way programming is done will change will need more domain experts and less code monkeys.
I think this applies for as long as humans are actually better than AI. At some point you won’t need a human directing the AI, it can just do any job better.
I think the implication was meant to be that there will be far more people who are both programmers and domain experts than there currently are programmers?
Domain experts often don't need to do anything "innovative" - they just want to schedule their team's workload or some-such that's been done a million times but the details of their particular situation are important. Most programmers now are doing such things for domain experts as it is. One possibility (I'm not 100% convinced) is that AI would allow the domain expert to do it directly, i.e. become a programmer themselves.
> Most programmers now are doing such things for domain experts as it is
HN again! ‘Most’ programmers are not doing that; most programmers couldn’t do that if their life depended on it. Or maybe the definition of programmer is different : I am talking about people who have the word programmer, software developer or software engineer in their job title. This, by large, does not mean they can write software, even on a trivial level, compared to what it means here on HN. Most can, are and will be replaced by AI because they simply bad; a handful will remain, which are the good/talented and smart ones. For now at least.
So as can be seen on HN talking about gpt; here many believe we are safe; that’s because the people hanging around here in the bubble are safe for now. But that is because it seems most people here never worked with a 100000 person ‘software development’ outsourcing shop etc; you would definitely say after 5 minutes with ‘senior engineers’ there that they can be replaced by 5 lines of Python, let alone an AI.
…a “tech lead” for AIs on less important projects that have opened up because the cost of development has been driven down, making bespoke development worthwhile in places where it wasn’t previously.