[kurthr]

I agree. I'm an amateur, but I'll give my personal answer:

There will be a recession.. but when? I think sooner than later, but next year NBER could declare it to have started today or maybe it starts in another 12 months. There are "large and variable lags to monetary policy", which usually means >12mo. Almost a bigger issue than the actual risk free treasury yields is the rate volatility that's forcing lending rates up, because bankers don't know what's going to happen, and that makes loans and hedging expensive. The speed of the rate rise, along with the size and duration of inversion is very large and relative to previous rates it's a huge move (doubling from the 1-2% previously). That's going to break something some time. It could be when the debt ceiling fight gets real or earlier, if the economy actually turns over. You'll know when the Fed starts cutting rates.