[bagacrap]

No? Overnight rate is 5% and last month/3 month inflation is running under 5% saar no matter which measure you use.

[adam_arthur]

Core CPI is above 5% by many measures (annualized using recent months numbers). Median CPI, which removes outliers, was 0.6% MoM last month.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-cpi

That being said, I don't think the effect of the funds rate will be felt linearly like most academic models assume, and don't think funds rate has to be above CPI to be restrictive.