Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by wbl 1180 days ago
Please explain to me what you think rates would have needed to do given that there was a massive decrease in economic activity due to a pandemic followed by inflation.
2 comments

I think the real damage was done between 2008 and 2018, when we spent 10+ years under zero interest rates in the US and negative rates in parts of Europe. I think that conditioned people to forget about things like duration risk and interest rate risk. Had we been under a "normal" rate regime during that period, I don't think people would have thought 10 year t-bonds paying 1.5% were in any sense of the word a "good deal." I think peoples' expectations were so messed up that Austria (?) issued a 97 year zero coupon, zero interest rate bond. Like it was a good thing.
IMO? Overnight term rates should have been zero from 2020 to about July of 2021, then allowed to rise by 0.25 per month to perhaps about 3.5%. Long-term rates should have been left to float with the market, pricing in the expected risk of inflation. Not that my opinion matters, since I wasn't in charge.
That still leads to losses on long term treasuries. That's what it means to raise rates.
Yes, of course it does. But there are losses, and then there are losses. 10-year yields going from 1.56% in 2021 to 4% in 2023 is equivalent to a price drop of 17% (given maturity in 2031). If 10-year yields had only been, say, 3% in 2021 before rising to 4%, the bond price drop would have been closer to 7%.