[fyzix]

1.decade of 0% apr >>> 2.high inflation >>> 3.gold price surge

We have gotten 1 and 2 but we haven't gotten to 3 because traders believe that the FED can win the inflation fight. The FED abandoned the inflation fight with a soft pivot yet traders are still not buying gold. This is what Peter couldn't foresee...traders' unwillingness to go against the FED.

This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, the prospects of very high inflation would result in a spike of the gold price.

[riffraff]

> This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, the prospects of very high inflation would result in a spike of the gold price.

Keynes mentioned "animal spirits" and "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" almost a hundred years ago. If your prediction doesn't account for reality and well know facts it's a bad prediction.

It would be like guessing that the next election will favor candidate X and when they don't win explaining it away with "well but people are dumb".

[dragonwriter]

> This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, the prospects of very high inflation would result in a spike of the gold price.

Since it was a prediction of the behavior in the real world, and it doesn’t reflect what actually occurred, it is a misprediction.

The fact that the predictor (or you) believes that a world in which the prediction was accurate would be more sane doesn’t make the wrong prediction better, since it wasn’t offered as a prediction of what would occur in some hypothetical sane world.

[lottin]

So he basically predicted "high inflation". He's been predicting that since at least 2010, probably earlier. Over a long enough period there is bound to be some episode of "high inflation", so sooner or later the prediction of "high inflation" will become true. This doesn't mean that the individual who made the prediction is some kind of visionary.

[fijiaarone]

The simple solution to this equation is that the assumption in number 3 isn’t correct.

Gold is not a store (or measure) of value. Nobody cares about gold. Sure, some people might like to have a gold ring or necklace, but that’s a tiny amount of material for a small number of people and it’s demand (like diamonds) is primarily marketing driven, and easily satisfied by a side effect of copper mining. Until the average Joe demands that his life savings be spent on a gold sarcophagus, it just won’t matter.

People tend to prefer fancy cars and houses and electronics and vacations and food and drink.

And you can see the cost of all those things has more than doubled in recent years, a clear indicator of inflation cause by (practically) zero percent interest rates.

[bruce511]

>> This is not a misprediction because in any sane world,

Describing any part of the financial system as sane (rational) is laughable. The system is built on the irrational nature of people.

In some absurd way, bank runs are an expression of actual rationality - give me my cold hard cash now, I don't trust you lot anymore.