[motoxpro]

I understand what you're saying. I just thing the world isn't so black and white. When you ask the idiot, or the smart person for that matter, a question, you have no idea if they are right or not. You only know after the fact when you get enough data to prove them wrong or someone that you trust more than that person tells you otherwise.

What is your error rate? What is my error rate? All of this stuff is unknown because we don't have counter factuals and we don't think of the world in this way (Did you order the correct food at dinner? Did you wash your clothes at the optimal time?)

To me you're thinking of it as a classical deterministic (binary) computer rather than a probabilistic thing. It's not an oracle, or a miracle, or anything other than some thing that gives useful information some percentage of the time. If something has to be right 100% of the time for it to be useful, or even 60% of the time, then the world is missing out on a lot of value.

Investors are right ~51% of the time, startup founders in the aggregate are right ~10% of the time, a great batting average is ~30%, etc.