[jongjong]

Could it be because a lot of big, important decisions by influential people are often made based on superficial factors (or gut feelings) and this skews outcomes? I guess sometimes dumb ideas do seem to win; especially in the short term. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

I think outside of markets and finance, there are areas where nuanced thinking delivers results, even if it's not necessarily rewarded appropriately by management. In tech, it might lead to a feature being implemented in a way which some users will really appreciate (without understanding why).