[tomrod]

Supply remains constrained, now with people not wanting to take on higher interest rates.

Move rates are roughly 9-10% a year. I bet we see that a lot lower for this quarter and next few quarters.

[vbtemp]

I think this is generally correct. This is the situation in my area: Prices can never fall, because if the situation was such that prices would fall, no one sells. So there's basically little to nothing available, so buyers are stuck competing no matter the macroeconomic situation.

[lazide]

Even in ‘08 this was the case.

That’s why short sales, foreclosures, ‘mailing the keys in’, etc. were a thing.

With housing, it’s NEVER a thing that someone just sells at a loss just because.

They sell at a loss because they don’t have a choice, and the bigger the loss, usually because the less choice they have.

If labor market is still doing well, then there is little pressure. Usually that happens a bit later anyway - construction workers out of work because housing isn’t being built, or folks employed by tech workers get laid off because tech isn’t so sure about those bonuses, etc.

We’ll see though - maybe the fed will pull off a soft landing this time.