[refurb]

Fuel prices have skyrocketed in the past with little impact on inflation.

I think one could argue they exacerbate inflation - rising prices can trigger more price increases, but in the end its money supply that drives an erosion of the value of currency.

[KingOfCoders]

When fuel prices in the 70s skyrocketed, so did inflation (talking about Germany where the Vietnam war/gold standard was not a factor).

[refurb]

When oil prices went from $86/bbl in 2007 to $176/bbl in 2008, inflation went from 2.5% (2007) to 3.7% (2008), which was within "target" for the fed.

Oil peaked at $108/bbl during Covid, and that's not inflation adjust. You can't tell me that when oil prices doubled in in 2008 and no inflation happened, that oil prices drove inflation now when it went up far less.

Like I said, supply constraints can drive inflation when there is excess money supply. But without excess money supple, the inflation impact of supply constraints is muted because, well, there isn't the money to feed demand - consumption just drops.

[KingOfCoders]

I don't know about the US.

In Europe inflation was driven by oil prices in the 70s because industry production was based on oil energy.

Europe switched to natural gas for industrial production.

Because natural gas costs were driven by long term contracts, not the spot market, it did not increas in 2008.

When because of the invasion natural gas costs spiked, despite long term contracts with Russia because companies needed to get out of them and buy natural gas on the market, inflation spiked.