[sklargh]

I think there is still a pathway to things calming down, especially if FRB and other verticalized regional banks can make it over the next few weeks.

I suspect if things do go, it will be in CMBS. I don’t think office assets are being fairly marked-to-market right now and I want to better understand mortgage performance on office real estate. Subsequent derivatives likely explode this risk and how they are intertwined across private money is unclear.

I am also generally worried about normcore middle market, the diesel engine repair franchise, regional fast casual chain, etc…they are really getting squeezed from several angles. Best guess, the rapid reduction in fuel prices bought a temporary reprieve but that things are coming.

As others have said here, the failure mode will probably be novel but seek leverage to find the arming switch.