[Clubber]

I think it's more like 2000 when there was a significant over-investment in tech, then Greenspan increased interest rates quickly and all the companies had to adapt to non-free money.

I think the housing market will correct (crash) and tech jobs will be harder to come by for junior folks and people who aren't that great at it. Not a great time to job hop. It won't be horrible like 2008 but it won't be great. Should be over by the 2024 election.

[Quarrel]

I agree that it feels more like 2000 in some ways. Certainly the crypto space was just as bubble-icious.

2008 when the crunch came it was super bad. Tech companies just froze their product plans. Stopped spending money. Lots of good startups failed through very little fault of their own, when they couldn't ride out the year or two before their customers would spend again.

In 2001 I founded a VC funded startup, and while it was a shit time to be raising money, it was a great time to be hiring. I think we could get to that position again this year. Right now it doesn't feel like good engineers are really struggling to find work though, while in 2001 that was definitely the case, and VCs are definitely getting more cautious.

In 2008 I had the sale of that business fall through as a major SV tech company's CFO said "Nope, we're just not spending any money on anything" after lots of work and terms being sorted out etc. People (CEOs & CFOs) were really scared about contagion and problems well beyond just "tech share are prices falling". I hope we don't get to that point again this time.

[adnmcq999]

That does sound more apples to apples. But without looking anything up, it seems like this time we’ve built up a bigger free-money cliff to fall off of

[Clubber]

>But without looking anything up, it seems like this time we’ve built up a bigger free-money cliff to fall off of

I agree. This is a good video on it from Frontline.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpMLAQbSYAw

They argue the free money has been going on since 2008, but I would argue it's been going on since 2001. Lowering interest rates is what the Fed did to combat the dot bomb.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-c...

[yucky]

   > Should be over by the 2024 election.

Even if the war spreads..?

[Clubber]

The war is the wildcard. 9/11 made the dot bomb a whole lot worse for hiring since all the travel/entertainment companies went off a cliff for a few years.