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by humanrebar 1186 days ago
I don't understand how residential housing isn't a big bubble. That has to have second order effects yet to be fully felt.

I guess maybe it could look like even more inflation? If inflation goes up enough and wages mostly keep up, housing could become relatively reasonably priced again.

2 comments

> I don't understand how residential housing isn't a big bubble.

It’s not inherently a bubble because it’s driven by demand far outstripping supply. It may prove to be bubble-like if:

A) Some significant % of homeowners see salaries reduced enough they can’t keep up on payments.

B) We suddenly start building massive amounts of additional housing units so a larger % of the population can own/rent a home and the price drops to match the lowest income that still outcompetes the rest of the non-homeowners / non-renters / uncomfortably sharing renters.

I'm hoping we go all-in on option B.
Increased housing prices definitely and directly cause inflation. Housing is in the neigborhood of 40% of the CPI basket, and even more of core CPI.