[bgroat]

This is the sort of stock line, and we're inclined to believe it because we're all in tech.

But go back on HN a decade and be really honest.

Are we any better than average at forecasting?

I'm starting to think that being on the bleeding edge and seeing so many possible alternate futures actually makes us worse

[JohnFen]

History clearly shows that we are no better than anyone else when it comes to predicting what's going to turn out to be important and world-changing.

Everyone is terrible at that.