[mark242]

Just how out of touch is this guy? 50% inflation MoM within the next 90 days? Does he not understand the multiple system shocks that would need to take place for that to even come close to reality?

Balaji, please - get out of your bubble. Go talk to your neighbors. They're all concerned about where to go for their kids spring break, the next episode of Mandalorian, and whether or not their bracket is still in contention.

Let's game out what it would take for 50% inflation MoM -- you'd need severe supply issues up and down for every possible good, including goods created domestically. You'd need the Fed to fire up the printing presses in a way that surpasses even 2008, which, good luck on that one. You'd need interest rates to go negative. You'd need the real estate market to do a 180 from "nothing's really selling right now" to "people can't buy houses fast enough". You'd need a confluence of black swan events to happen globally in order to knock the dollar from being a reserve currency. How does that possibly happen?

Just dumb, all around.

[quickthrowman]

I’m convinced he is trolling, he posted another tweet where he says this:

> This isn't your typical fractional reserve situation. The problem is that there isn't enough in the banks on a mark-to-market basis to cover withdrawals.

How are people going to withdraw money and not put it into another bank? This guy is just saying ridiculous shit for attention, there’s no way he’s this stupid.

Again, his thesis is that bank withdrawals will cause banks to collapse and hyperinflation. It’s not possible for this to happen, there’s not enough physical cash to cause banks to collapse from withdrawals, and if you take money out of a bank in a non-cash form, where will you put it?

[JVillella]

>How are people going to withdraw money and not put it into another bank? This guy is just saying ridiculous shit for attention, there’s no way he’s this stupid.

Maybe it goes something like this: AIUI the act of pulling money out of the banks will crash them, one by one. Along the way the government will continue to print to try to backstop it and restore confidence. The act of this just speeds up the demise. The money will get centralized to the GSIBs. But they have the same problem.

[mrandish]

If we accept the hypothesis, based on available priors, that he's not an idiot – then what's he up to? Speculation: could he view making and losing the bet as worthwhile investment because he's holding enough bitcoin that media attention would increase concerns of hyperinflation driving bitcoin's value enough to offset the cost of losing the bet?

[KRAKRISMOTT]

He will either lose his money or be known as the next George Soros (those who are old enough may remember that he once broke the British pound and several other minor currencies)