[coldtea]

>If increased productivity equaled job loss there would be two programmers alive today, doing the same job as the fewer than 10000 programmers using punch cards as we entered the year 1950.

The only reason it's not the case in this example is because computers at the time were a tiny early adopter niche, which massively multiplied and expanded to other areas. Like, only 1 in 10,000 businesses would have one in 1950, and only big firms would. Heck, then 1 in 100 million people even had a computer.

Today they've already done that expansion into all businesses and all areas of corporate, commerce, and leisure activities. Now almost everybody has one (or a comparable device in their pocket).

Already cloud based systems have made it so that a fraction of programmers and admins are needed. In some cases eliminating the need for one altogether.

There are tons of other fields, however, more mature, where increased productivity very much equaled job loss...

[cguess]

Have no doubt, we will find new places to put computers. In the 80's and even the 90's everyone said the same thing, "Why do I need a computer? I can do everything I do already without a problem?" Well, turns out with computers you could do 12 more things you can never considered. Consider the interoffice memo: it'd take what, 1-2 hours to get a document from one floor to another through the system? Cool, you can work on 2-3 projects at a time maybe, because that's all the bandwidth allowed. Along comes email and ups that to 5-6 because now the communications can be pretty consistent. It's still not perfect, because what if you're at lunch or the gym? Then came Blackberries and all of a sudden its 12-15 projects at once. Then Slack because you don't even have to think. Now add this.

Notice that during that time there weren't all of a sudden less programmers, or managers or sysadmins, if anything there's more. If anything everyone is even more stressed with more to do because of the context switching and 24/7. That's why this will do, I'd bet money on it.

[notJim]

I dunno, I feel like we've been trying to find new places to put computers for a couple decades now, and the effort is kind of losing steam. Every week there are threads about how useless a lot of these efforts are.

[CamperBob2]

You just don't hear about all the computers, that's all. There's one on your car's key fob, and likely 100 more in the car. Your coffee grinder has one. So does your dishwasher. And your electric blanket.

[illiarian]

There are 100-150 CPUs in a modern car.

...And also over 100 bugs in the spec that governs communication between car systems: https://youtu.be/hXnS_Xjwk2Y?t=899 (around 15 minute mark)

[coldtea]

>In the 80's and even the 90's everyone said the same thing, "Why do I need a computer? I can do everything I do already without a problem?" Well, turns out with computers you could do 12 more things you can never considered

Yeah. Also, unfortunately, it turns out those people in the 80s and 90s got it right. They didn't really need a computer - they'd better off without one. But as soon as we got them, we'd find some things to use them for - mostly detrimental to our lives!