If you told me that if I leave my house at 10:00 PM to-nite and I had a probability 1/15000 chance of dying or become incapacitated I would more than likely wait five or ten mins before leaving.
50-year-old males have a 1/75000 chance of dying on any given day. 70-year-old males have a 1/15000 chance of dying on any given day. See https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
> of dying or become incapacitated
Sorry, I don't see any death in the logs, can you point me to recent aviation deaths that were caused by this?
> or become incapacitated
For instance, you have a ~1 in 366 chance of being in a car accident per 1000 miles driven.
I think you should stay home more often, or learn more about probability.