I agree with you - I edited my comment above - if defensive capabilities allow multiple AGIs to develop I have no clue what the outcome would be - we are talking about predicting superhuman intelligence here.
An interesting thing to consider is if an AGI would be able to run on small nerfed hardware like recent optimizations can, or if you need absurd tier hardware to also run it. If it's the latter even if it's really smart there's only on or N of them. And it's still limited by the speed of light in it's thinking speed. If it's the former, when it leaks, it'd be everywhere.