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by knowledge-clay
1191 days ago
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> It's looking increasingly possible that, at some point in the not-too-far future machines will be so good at creating software that humans won't be competitive in any way, and won't be in the loop at all. This is an enormous extrapolation from what the LLMs are currently capable of. There has been enormous progress, but the horizon seems pretty clear here: these models are incapable of abstract reasoning, they are incapable of producing anything novel, and they are often confidently wrong. These problems are not incidental, they are inherent. It cannot really abstractly because its "brain" is just connections between language, which human thought is not reducible to. It can't reason produce anything really novel because it requires whatever question you ask to resemble something already in its training set in some way, and it will be confidently wrong because it doesn't understand what it is saying, it relies on trusting that the language in its training set is factual, plus manual human verification. Given these limits, I really fail to see how this is going to replace intellectual labor in any meaningful sense. |
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