1 bit will mathematically be guaranteed to be more efficient for performance-per-parameter so to me it is a pretty clear eventuality one day, but I think also the relative performance % will likely tank still. Impressed honestly that it held so well at 4 bit tbh, I thought personally that 8 bit was the ceiling.
However I can see fractional bits (via binary representations) and larger models happening first before that compression step.
So we have numbers on PTB original perplexity 8.79 quantized 9.68, already 10% worse. And PPL reported per token I suppose? Because word PPL for PTB must be around 20, not less than 10.
They're using GTPQ -- here you go: https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.17323 . The authors benchmarked two families of models over a wide range of numbers of params.
However I can see fractional bits (via binary representations) and larger models happening first before that compression step.
And then we have the sub-bit range..... ;DDDD