[naasking]

I agree what they have internally might be transformative, but my point is that society literally cannot transform over the course of months. It's literally impossible.

Even if they release AGI, people will not have confidence in that claim for at least a year, and only then will rate of adoption will rapidly increase to transformative levels. Pretty much nobody is going to be fired in that first year, so a true transformation of society is still going to take years, at least.

[FeepingCreature]

I mean, if you believe that AGI=ASI (ie. short timelines/hard takeoff/foom), the transformation will happen regardless of the social system's ability to catch up.

[naasking]

It's not a matter of any social system, it's a matter of hard physical limits. There is literally no hard takeoff scenario where any AI, no matter how intelligent, will be able to transform the world in any appreciable way in a matter of months.