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by fisherjeff 1192 days ago
The only risk for other banks is opportunity cost: right now, there are much more productive uses of their money than buying old agencies at par. If you had $200b or whatever laying around, you could buy their portfolio and make about the lowest risk $10b there is. But if you just bought new agencies at the same durations instead, you could easily double that.

EDIT: To clarify, this is the primary risk at large banks, where they could absorb a chunk of the bonds without significantly affecting their average maturity. Smaller banks obviously risk replaying the SVB run.
1 comments
yunwal 1191 days ago
> The only risk for other banks is opportunity cost

To be clear, if banks can improve their risk profile for free, they will do that (because it frees them to invest in other risky stuff). A no-risk 5% return while the fed is giving out sub-5% interest rates is a no-brainer. The reason no banks are coming in to help is because it would be a bad investment.

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fisherjeff 1191 days ago
They are 5-10% total return, not annual. My point is that it is not a bad investment, it’s just a less-good investment than equivalent bonds with the exact same (extremely low!) risk profile at today’s rates. They were a perfectly fine investment in 2021-22, they just aren’t as attractive in 2023. Could very well be good again in 2024 though, who knows.
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