| citations needed. China and other manufacturing behemoths are producing dramatically more than they were before the pandemic and we are importing and buying all of those foreign goods.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=117Ig I don't know about where you live but I see a lot more automation in service industries where I live. We continue to innovate. There's a labor shortage and we are below the natural unemployment rate, and it's not that those workers are doing less, as real GDP continues to grow
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=117IF The inflation we've seen is almost all demand driven. There's plenty of supply of goods and services compared to pre pandemic. Your narrative doesn't fit the data. On the other hand, Bridgewater's October 2021 analysis has been spot on.
https://www.bridgewater.com/its-mostly-a-demand-shock-not-a-... Everyone got their stimmy check, paid down their debt, quit commuting, and realized they could buy more stuff. They did that for a couple of years. Now that credit card balances are peaking again (and at higher rates!), demand will slow and there will be a recession. The fed, always looking in the crystal ball but mostly reacting to what's in the rearview, will ease off rates and the economy will level out. The fed can't get rid of business and credit cycles, but they can try to quiet the amplitude. They have blunt tools to do that.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=117MH |