[joseftexas]

There is nothing lucky about his pull. When you are super rich you get access to highly restricted network. You will know people and have access to them directly that ordinary peasants like us cant. He most likely have been warned months ago. And his own ai tech can piece together how reliable his warnings are.

[mannerheim]

There were newsletters saying SVB was insolvent in January.

[kkielhofner]

Yet Thiel took no action until Thursday.

Find me a potential scenario and I'll find a random newsletter or tweet thread predicting it.

Things like this remind me of the hindsight lens of many conspiracy theorists ("We're wrong 99/100 but look at this one we got right") or even people (mostly playfully) saying things like "The Simpsons predicted 9/11".

To say that the average startup founder/team should have taken action based on a random newsletter or tweet thread predicting this (storied 40 year old bank failing) in January is pretty absurd.

[mannerheim]

The newsletters based everything off of publicly available information.

By Thursday, the news were already abuzz with SVB being in dire straits and the CEO calling people to tell them their deposits were safe.

It's funny you compare this to the hindsight of a conspiracy theorist when this whole notion that Peter Thiel used secret insider knowledge is by definition a conspiracy theory. I only present the alternative, that there was information publicly available that could have led one to draw this conclusion.

[kkielhofner]

Again, publicly available information (from months ago) resulting in a thesis - not any different than that of any short seller, talking television head, Twitter account, or “newsletter” predicting anything throughout history.

This thesis happened to be proven correct in this instance. Now let’s go talk about the thousands that have been wrong.

I didn’t and don’t support any conspiracy regarding Thiel in any of this. I don’t think that conversation is productive.

What I am saying is the timing is interesting and anyone who thinks the playing field is level with a 25 year SV power player veteran billionaire is delusional.

[ayewo]

Do you have any links handy?

[mannerheim]

https://twitter.com/itsurboyevan/status/1634603869752766471

[jboggan]

Here, buried in the bottom of the comments, is the most useful piece of information in the entire section.

My question is what else has this fellow identified and what have Thiel et al. read and internalized?

[reducesuffering]

SIVB's issues were outlined far before that Twitter analysis https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-...

Dec. 2022:

"Unfortunately, the flipside of the tech bubble is fairly ugly for the company with added pressure coming from higher operating costs, higher costs of deposits, and unrealized losses in its htm (hold to maturity) fixed income portfolio. Both these htm losses and potential losses from the loan portfolio could wipe out book equity value."

[dopeboy]

Agreed. The headline and article are classic click bait. Folks should read the tweet above for the full details.

[edem]

Which ones?