[dragontamer]

Do you understand how crap SIVB's books were? 50%+ held to maturity? Long dated 10Y and 30Y bonds? A complete lack of a Risk Officer from April 2022 through January 2023?

Given how utterly terribly SIVB was run, I'm not exactly expecting a major issue come Monday. I'm looking at the books of like Ally Bank, and they're way better. https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000040729/f4eb406...

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If there are other banks as poorly run as SIVB, they probably do deserve to collapse. But I also don't expect there to be many banks with that level of stupidity.

At Silicon Valley Bank, we're basically looking at a bank, whose Risks were completely slept on during the entire period of the fastest rising federal funds rate in the last half-century. (Or really, the position of Chief Risk Officer was vacant for this entire period). I assume the other banks had better risk management.

[schrodinger]

Mostly agree, but panic isn't always rational and I suspect most people will react emotionally rather than look at their bank's books like you did.

[dragontamer]

If the banks books are solid, they should survive a 25%ish decline in deposits, which was roughly the level of SIVB on Thursday.

I don't expect a 25% decline across the industry however. The knock-on effects will be smaller. With a smaller "shockwave" of runs, combined with stronger bank fundamentals, I really don't think we're looking at a big domino-effect 2008-like collapse here.