[thephyber]

I think the most likely scenario is almost all deposits returned (or retained), as you describe.

But I think you are also underestimating the risk and the complexity of how the new bank management gets to that place. Who valued the “assets”? What accounting method did they use? Are the current day valuations based on assumptions about the economy in the near future and the liquidity of money in the finance system? That could become a self-fulfilling death spiral.

The impact of SVB being unable to raise short term funds this week despite being the 16th largest bank in the US and having plenty of deposits is what scared the stock market away from the banking sector Thursday.

> based on what the FDIC can sell the bank or its assets for This is the big question. SVB had plenty of assets, but couldn’t sell anything large in the market this week. FDIC most likely can’t do it either.

I think the assets are only attractive to someone who plans on holding it for years, and even then this may not be the most attractive bank to buy if other banks have similar issues in the next few weeks/months.