[zamadatix]

The market expects the bank going under to impact Roku by that much expected value. That's very different than saying the market expects a certain percentage of money to be returned in the end and it's not clear why this is supposed to give even a ballpark estimate of the expected recoup. After all the share price has way more to it than what the current assets come to.

It's also very likely the market changes its mind shortly, especially if Roku lays out the plan and expected impact to operations in more detail.

[frankchn]

The drop is in the aftermarket immediately after the 8-K release, so I think we can attribute most of it to the market's gut reaction to this piece of news and not the broader SVB impact (which would have occurred during market hours).

Agree that the market might change its mind quickly, especially if estimated recoveries are projected to be high or the depositors completely made whole.

[hackernewds]

Assuming the markets are rational ;) we take it as an axiom, but that is different than saying expectations are always priced in

[Kamq]

> Assuming the markets are rational ;)

I mean, they are on a long enough timeline, but they tend to be able to stay irrational longer than you can remain liquid.

[zamadatix]

Absolutely it’s the reasonable cause but as explained there is a difference between the news being the expected cause and the drop being what the market thinks the assets recoup will be.