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by adam_arthur 1200 days ago
People don't want to accept it on this forum, but with VC money drying up, lessened risk taking, widespread layoffs, plus large influx of workers via career changes, remote work leading to CoL arbitrage, wages are likely to decline pretty broadly across the industry.

Especially so at the upper end FAANG comp bands. Likely most of these previously 500k+ comp packages will compress closer to 300k. Issuing RSUs at lowered valuation multiples is much less viable for a public company. Some public companies have ~50% or more of their revenue consumed by stock based comp, which is clearly not sustainable.

It will impact me too, but I accept it as the most likely outcome

1 comments

I think the larger income hump will diminish greatly but other industries are probably just waking up to the fact that they were thrown into an accelerated automation and digital transformation competition. I really don't understand how that can't be bad for the rest of the labor market though.. I don't really see consumers as infinitely hungry for goods in the long term.
The good thing about automation/productivity gains is that it leads to increases in real wages. Cheaper means to produce goods and services means cheaper goods and services.

And so far throughout history, displaced workers have found new avenues to be productive in the face of technological disruption. It is true that the progression of technology has hastened over time, so perhaps it could create a bigger labor force disruption than in the past.

As some jobs disappear, other jobs become more cost viable through the deflationary structure. e.g. food delivery wasn't likely a viable business before automobiles/e-bikes. Once real cost of delivering a good passes into an economical threshold, new jobs become viable where previously they weren't