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by 7thaccount
1203 days ago
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I read a book that touched on this called "super forecasters". Apparently there was a push to reduce ambiguity in briefings. I can't remember if it was Obama or a different president (may have been as far back as Carter), but they were told something by an intelligence advisor and they asked for what is basically a confidence interval. The advisor went back and found out what they were conveying as a sure thing was basically like 50:50 chance. At some point they then decided to come up with a system to make this clearer. |
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> In 1964 Sherman Kent, a cia analyst, coined the phrase “words of estimative probability”.
So that must have been even before Carter