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by WJW 1202 days ago
Perhaps, but probably not. Just doing some napkin math, to get to ten billion in withdrawals (ie only 5% of total assets of SV bank) you would need a million wall street bets subscribers to withdraw 10k each. Not a million to deposit it first and then retract it, a million retail subscribers who already had at least 10k deposited in this bank that mainly serves startups. I don't think it's very likely.

Also, it would still be extremely illegal to arrange this with the express purpose of causing a bank run. The excuse of "yes but it was on r/wallstreetbets" is not probably very impressive to the SEC.

1 comments

While it’s unlikely we’re going to see a meme stock moment, a bank run by a collection of risk adverse founders already facing a challenging macro pulling their deposits is entirely possible. And those cash balances are likely much more than 10k assuming runway liquidity.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086853

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35086888

Yes but people rationally pulling money from a failing bank is very different than a subreddit banding together to kill the bank on purpose.
It really shouldn't matter. An elevator full of people shouldn't fail just because they all jump in unison, so long as the number of people / weight is below the maximum capacity.

We view banking differently because ultimately banking is political and powerful people benefit from being able to leverage without a pre-defined plan to handle some aspects of the downside risk, even though creating such a plan is straightforward. Creating such a plan would surface the cost of the plan in advance and it's easier to pretend it was an "impossible" and unanticipated phenomenon rather than just greed.