[nostrademons]

Predicted 2000, 2008-09, and 2020. Predicted growth from 2003-2007. Falsely predicted a double-dip in 2011. Predicted growth from 2012-2020. Correctly predicted that 2015 and 2017-2018 would not result in recessions at a time that media and some friends were saying they would. Incorrectly predicted that 2020 recession would last longer than it did - I reversed opinion in early 2021, which was a little late to capture much of the upside. Correctly predicted the 2020+ inflation.

In general I've got close to 100% success at avoiding major disasters, but also tend to be a little bit jumpy on the trigger and sometimes forecast disasters that do not happen. ("A little bit" meaning about a 30-40% false-positive rate, not a perma-bear.) I also usually predict a higher severity and longer duration than actually occurs.

[rlonn]

It’s like they say: bears have predicted all 25 of the last 5 recessions

[selimthegrim]

Civilization ending because it affects ability to respond to climate change?

[nostrademons]

I explain a bit more what I mean here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35087159

I consider climate-change to be another potential civilization ending event in that it's going to create ripple effects that will likely lead to present-day governments falling. But I'm not referring to it as an effect here - TBH, I think the consequences of climate change are already locked in at this point and we're going to face them regardless of what we do.

I mean "civilization ending" as in "the rules are unknown or non-existent". As in, our civilization ends, not civilization for all time ends. There will be new forms of cooperation and political organization - I suspect they'll grow out of local governments.