[tablespoon]

>>> ...the article doesn’t mention just how incredibly vulnerable China is to possible sanctions targeting their food supply. China imports most of its food and as their farmland is quite poor, its hugely dependent on fertiliser to feed itself. Sanctions targeting these basics would be devastating...

>> Also they import about 90% of their oil.

> They probably assumed that sanctions would not be all that severe, given their pivotal position in the world economy. Perhaps they'll reconsider after seeing the level of sanctions against Russia.

Why? Russia has successfully bypassed most of those sanctions. There have been many articles about that.

Sanctions like that will only work if the entire rest of the world lines up behind what leading western nations want, and the Ukraine war show that probably won't happen.

Russia's big exports also happen to be food and oil...

[DennisP]

Exactly. Russia is able to withstand the sanctions because they are major exporters of food and oil. China is in the opposite position.

[tablespoon]

> Exactly. Russia is able to withstand the sanctions because they are major exporters of food and oil. China is in the opposite position.

I think you missed my point: there's synergy between the West's two pariahs. Russia can provide the food and oil China needs, and China can supply manufactured goods to Russia (and Africa and all kinds of other places that won't fall in line behind whatever the West wants them to do).

[DennisP]

Ah, I did miss that point. There are some practical difficulties for oil at least. Russia doesn't have pipelines that connect all their oil facilities to China; the facilities that do connect to China are pretty high-tech, have depended on western companies for maintenance, and don't have a lot of spare capacity. To get the oil from other regions, they'd have to rely on ships, either from China and Russia or any other countries willing to flout sanctions. (This is according to Peter Zeihan.)

[tablespoon]

> Russia doesn't have pipelines that connect all their oil facilities to China; the facilities that do connect to China are pretty high-tech, have depended on western companies for maintenance, and don't have a lot of spare capacity.

I believe Russia is already working on building new pipelines to fix that. The Chinese also know how to build things fast, so that doesn't seem like an insurmountable problem.

> To get the oil from other regions, they'd have to rely on ships...

Is that a problem or just a small inefficiency? Because it doesn't look like a problem to me, short of an all-out war where you've got submarines attacking commercial shipping.

[HDThoreaun]

The US would blockade the strait of malacca and the rest of the chinese coast to enforce sanctions. China does not currently have the pipelines to russia they would need to import enough fossil fuels over land.