[nebula8804]

Ah the Peter Zeihan theory. Sounds plausible but at the same time, it clashes with the Chris Hedges theory: the argument that capitalism is an inherently destructive force that rots and ruins every arena of American life.

The corporate state that presides over this destructive capitalist economic system is ruthless and relentless. “It practices only the politics of vengeance. It uses coercion, fear, violence, police terror and mass incarceration as forms of social control while it cannibalizes the nation and the globe for profits.”

This scourge is all-consuming. Once-liberal institutions, including “the press, labor unions, political third parties, civic and church groups, public broadcasting, well-funded public universities, and a liberal wing of the Democratic Party,” have all “collapsed under sustained assault during the past forty years of corporate power.” Today, there are “no institutions left in America that can authentically be called democratic.”

It is terminal. “Short of a sudden and widespread popular revolt, the death spiral appears unstoppable, meaning the United States as we know it will no longer exist within a decade or, at most, two.”

And it is worldwide. “The malaise that infects Americans is global.” Global capitalism is responsible for all misery and the metastasizing of violent rage from many different sides, from jihadists and neofascists to far-right militias and antifa.

[rjbwork]

I somewhat noncommittally also agree with Hedges here. I think that we have serious problems as described by Hedges and other neo-marxist theorists, but I also think that Zeihan is pretty spot on in terms of the geopolitics of the situation. It's unclear to what extent these competing variables will contribute to the situation as things go forward.

On the optimistic side, I'd like to think that the oligarch class in the US relents before revolution and decimation of the country and economy that is their cash cow. Certainly it would be better to reap merely some fraction of their disgustingly obscene profits than none of it, and the US is well positioned a la Zeihan in the coming global crisis years.

But yes, on the pessimistic side, the proletariat cannot be squeezed indefinitely. Too much pressure and it will explode, with disastrous consequences all around.

Overall, I'm hopeful that continually declining birth rates (though much stronger than the rest of the developed world) and the recent decimation of the labor force will continue to bolster labor power, leading to a recession in oligarchical power that will prevent the worst consequences of of their rapacious excess.

[nebula8804]

Before the pandemic, after Bernie was crushed for a second time by the oligarchs, I often wondered where the oligarchs would run away to once the people have had enough. Some thoughts were China, Switzerland, Israel, New Zealand, or Mars. Post pandemic all of these places seem to have issues that prevent them from being a one stop destination for all of the worlds wealth hoarders. There is still the theory that the US becomes more like Brazil: Large amounts of poverty with secure enclaves of the extremely rich. I know this is a stretch but we are already seeing shadows of it in the pop culture with the popularity of films like the purge.

Zeihan does talk about the US going through a political reshuffling right now that will take 10-20 years. I guess on that timeframe we will find out what happens.