US births per thousand fell from 13.8 to 13.5 from 2008 to 2009, less than a 2% decrease. There wasn't a sudden cliff; US birth rates have decreased every year but 9 (1979-1988) from 1950 to 2019, going from 24 in 1950 to 12 today. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/birt....
Yeah, probably a bigger effect has been reduced foreign enrollment (COVID etc) over the last 3 years, however this will rebound. This is less true of applicants from China.
US federal population projections don't foresee a big change in 18-24 year olds into the future [0]. Though generally there's a trend of a slight increase in foreign born populations over native born.
I would think even more important to universities should be the raw number of high schoolers and high schoolers’ parent that are questioning the ROI of universities, especially private universities.
The ROI of elite private universities like MIT, Harvard, and Stanford are still very high. The private universities that should be worried are the ones that don't have an elite reputation but still charge the same tuition (or higher tuition, if you account for financial aid) as the elite universities.
For the field as a whole I guess, the rate must matter, right? Like, if the birth rate increases, then a higher percentage of the population will be employed in teaching related jobs, because there are more kids per adult.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2022/06/23/fore...
That demand in turn affects positions filled/available at community colleges.