[thwayunion]

> Did you buy real-estate in 20/21 when the mortgate rates were 2%? If you didn't that's a terrible decision.

Meh. Securing financing in 20/21 was great but buying in 20/21 was kind of terrible.

Everyone I know who bought during that time period is now stuck for 30 years because over-extended and took a bath on property value, and a lot of them are already regretting that choice as life returns to normal and they realize life in the outer suburbs is kind of miserable (especially as they RTO).

Conversely, refinancing and leveraging cheap cash in 20/21, building a pile of powder, and then waiting until 2023-2024 to buy looks like a much better move. At least in my local market, either prices are down significantly or the seller can't afford a lower price and the inventory just sits on the market.

[deltree7]

Real Estate from 20/21 appreciated 20-30%. With leverage you'd see 100%-200% returns. You can always sell now and realize that gain. At the end of the day, however you look at it, it'll be one of the stupidest financial decision you've made and you should take responsibility for it

[thwayunion]

The 20-30% appreciation is in specific markets. Definitely not all markets. Several housing markets are already down from 20/21 highs and lots of markets are trending downward.

Again, securing financing in 20/21 was great but buying real estate at those prices wasn't great relative to alternatives.

If a mortgage was you only way to get leverage in 20/21 then you should've taken out a mortgage. But if you had other ways to get leverage at the lower rates -- eg taking out a line of credit on existing real estate or borrowing against assets -- other options have been performing better and especially over the next few years will continue performing much better.

[cudgy]

What if it went the other way? The strategy you described is a silly gamble that could have resulted in bankruptcy. Read the book Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb for a treatise on why your thinking is wrong.

[deltree7]

I read "Fooled By Randomness" 20 years ago :)

Your rebuttal, is exactly my point. Leaders make strategic bets all the time, especially in the tech world where you have to constantly take risks. Not all of them will come off and leaders have to shut-down / layoff people when bets fail.

I'm admonishing OP for cherry-picking the time when leaders made the wrong bet.