[gorjusborg]

Right now, life expectancy in U.S. is dropping, not rising: https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA

The fact that some individuals survive longer than the average isn't an indication of the average outcome.

I sincerely hope that the trend does change direction, but I am currently skeptical.

[valine]

“Life expectancy is dropping in the US” is a great clickbait headline. Life expectancy has been rising steadily for decades, with a tiny blip downwards the last two years. You think maybe that big pandemic that killed a million people in the US had anything to do it?

The handwringing about lifestyle changes is exhausting.

[ygjb]

Well yeah, but the long tail of shitty health policy is coming home to roost. What kind of a health care impact do you think the recent criminalization of routine women's medical health procedures will have? (Hint - there are already women who are dying or having significant health impacts due to doctors delaying or outright refusing treatment out of fear of legal action in several states).

[gorjusborg]

> You think maybe that big pandemic that killed a million people in the US had anything to do it?

I'm not making judgements, just stating the fact. You obviously seem to have it all figured out though.

[bjtitus]

Kind of seems like your eyes are making judgements to assume 2 downward data points indicate a change in the overall trend.

[seanmcdirmid]

You need to ignore dips and look at long term trends when reading graphs. If the end of your graph ends in a dip, that in no way implies the start of a downward trend.

[gorjusborg]

I agree with this in general.

Living in the U.S., though, there are some real problems with the healthcare system that came to a head at the same time as (and partly due to) the pandemic.

I just find it interesting that an someone would make predictions about drastically higher life expectancy during a period where the trend isn't even directionally accurate.

[bjtitus]

70 years of trend vs 2 years below the trend. Hmmmm....

I suppose the downturns in 1967-69, 1992-1995, or, historically, the Spanish Flu period were also indicative of a massive break with the historical trend?

It's clear that COVID and overdoses are the overwhelming contributors[1].

1: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/...

[ryandvm]

Life expectancy dipped due to COVID, opioid overdoses, and suicides. They all count obviously, but the last two are particularly avoidable.

In other words, I'm not too worried about accidentally committing suicide or overdosing on heroin.

[ozim]

Minor nitpick.

Not some individuals - really wealthy individuals.

[masklinn]

The statement of TFA, which GP defends, is

> Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

Notably missing from the sentence: "born in rich families" and "who don't fall into the trap of lifelong substance abuse".