[hyperthesis]

Comparative simplicity requires you to accurately imagine the entire lifecycle of each alternative.

This is a lot of work. And your prediction can end up wrong anyway (by your mistake or by the world changing).

How are we then to make choices? Perhaps just, if one solution seems clearly simpler (to you), then choose that. If one looks unnecessarily complex, don't choose that.

Simpl-est derails us perfectionist programmers. So maybe "Do the simpler thing that can possibly work"

"You don't need to know a man's weight to know that he's fat" - Benjamin Graham.

EDIT "Could possibly work" also implies a lack of foreknowledge as to its actual simplicity, or whether it will function correctly... or at all.