[jwr]

Do you run a software business for a living? I do. And I've done the calculations many times. It's exceedingly difficult to build a sustainable business based on B2C sales, and without subscriptions your customer lifetime value is basically nowhere. Either you have god-level skills at marketing and you're able to get your CAC rock-bottom-low, or your business is destined for failure.

Of course, you can also play the game of "a new major version every year". Build new features and encourage users to upgrade. I really dislike this approach, for two reasons: you end up with bloated software instead of well-maintained software (features need to be added to convince users to upgrade), and because it's really a subscription in disguise.

If you want proof, look around. There aren't many successful pay-once apps, and those that exist either play the upgrade game, or disappear after a couple of years.